Northstar picked up anther 10 inches in the past 24 hours bringing the storm total to 13 inches so far. That is 1 inch shy of the lower end of my forecast as drier air behind the cold front cut off the snow much faster than expected. Northstar now has 465 inches on the season which is 133% of the seasonal snowfall average. My forecast was for 125% of average this season but I don’t mind being wrong that way. Maybe we can hit 500 inches?
The pattern is quite progressive over the long-range with the teleconnections mostly neutral. Starting this Thursday going out 10+ days there is a storm about every other day or so. We will get the Southern egde of a storm Thursday night and Saturday night with light snow possible. The bigger affect will most likely be a quick shot of colder air.
Then the ridge may retrograding a little further West in the Pacific allowing a storm to dig a little further South on Monday the 14th and another on Wednesday. Those would be a nice shot of cold snow to freshen things up. The best chance at another bigger shot of snow still looks to be Friday the 18th as the ridge may retrograde a bit further West as a strong storm comes across the Pacific and digs South picking up lots of moisture before it hits the West coast.
As we get into the middle of March we have to start taking the long-range models with a grain of salt. They are much less accurate with the change in the pattern going into Spring. With that in mind they are hinting at continued storminess with another storm possible Monday the 21st. Teleconnections are not as favorable for big West coast storms, but they are also not favorable for ridging yet either. They are in a pattern of progressive zonal flow for now, so will have to keep an eye on the forecasts. Stay tuned……BA (Courtesy of the Northstar Resort snow bloggers)