Last week the GAO reported that there were plenty of pilots to fly the airplanes and get you to your vacation or business meeting. The GAO concluded that the problem was simply the pay.
The funny thing is the GAO numbers just don’t add up. They said there are 130,000 registered and licensed pilots in the United States. 72,000 of them are currently employed as a pilot already.
The assumption is that all of the pilots would be ready and willing to become airline pilots if the pay was high enough. The problem is that there are a lot of people that fly for “work” and are not pilots, nor would they accept the lifestyle at any price
The numbers get better when the GAO said that 105,000 of the 130,000 pilots have a commercial license. Sure, those pilots have a “commercial license”. The problem is in the world of aviation, the commercial license is the equivalent of a Masters Degree. Last year, lawmakers said that wasn’t good enough and required an Airline Transport Pilot license or ATP. Effectively saying everyone needed to go back to school and get a Ph.D. in flying.
Getting an ATP can be a $20,000 upgrade, and with starting salaries at the “commuter” or “regional” airlines in the $25,000-$30,000 range, how many people do you think are lining up for those classes? Instructors I know have a lot of time on their hands and space in their calendars.
It doesn’t help that cities across the country are closing critical airports like when former Chicago Mayor Dailey literally bulldozed Meigs field so he could get the land, or airports like Santa Monica that are now charging a student for every practice landing they make and asking to shorten the runway to reduce the amount of traffic in there. Developers want to build low income housing.
The reality is two fold. First, many pilots have a career they enjoy that also allows them to fly. I know of a Doctor who lives in Las Vegas and fly’s his personal airplane into Orange County a couple of times each week to work. His income far exceeds all airline pilots so I can’t imagine him applying to an airline anytime soon.
In fact the income is such a problem many pilots have second careers as Realtors, Doctors, Lawyers and Accountants. The GAO hit the pay nail on the head. Many pilots are finding better paying work, with more time at home and leaving the profession. They completely missed the numbers though.
There clearly aren’t enough pilots to stop the shortage. Much like the shortage of Doctors a little over a decade ago, the cost and time to train a pilot means that even after the airlines correct the pay model, it will be 3-5 more years before more people are standing in line to apply with their ATP certificate in hand.
What does this mean to you? Higher air fare, and more cancelled flights.